European Scenario

WEEKLY COMMENT 23-02-2017

By Barry Edwards

European Scenario

The Conservative win at the Copeland by-election is a stunning victory for the Theresa May government and their political management of the Brexit policies they have outlined. Admittedly, there are other issues that worked heavily in their favour especially the nuclear energy policy but however it is analysed winning an opposition held constituency mid-term is a rare event.  It clearly sends a signal that if a general election were to be held in the next few months the possibility of a massive swing to the Tories is almost certain. In fact, it actually indicates that it is not necessary to do that and cements the strong position the government has politically. read more

2017 Reality Check

WEEKLY COMMENT 16-02-2017

By Barry Edwards

2017 Reality Check

 

The first six weeks of 2017 has produced abundant comment about the potential or looming disaster of the world economy that we have seen for some time. Those people who analyse financial and economic events have been prolific in their pronouncements and it is difficult to gather a general consensus for the direction or trend of what the future holds. Events such as Brexit and the election of Donald trump with the rise of populism throughout the developed world have created an environment that presents so many possibilities that accurate prediction is unfathomable. read more

The Cost of Brexit

WEEKLY COMMENT 9-02-2017

By Barry Edwards

The Cost of Brexit

 

Now the government is properly authorised by parliament to activate article 50 of the EU treaty, the reality of the cost of exiting is the main subject under discussion by economists, journalists and commentators. What this really entails has been described in a paper from the Centre for Economic Reform (CER) written by Alex Barker, the Brussels bureau chief for the Financial Times. It is an easy to read well written document explaining the fundamental financial commitments that the UK is committed to with the EU and how it all might be finalised. If you click on the link below you can read the paper (15 pages); read more

BofE Inflation Report

WEEKLY COMMENT 2-02-2017

By Barry Edwards

BofE Inflation Report

The Bank of England’s inflation report is a very different document from the previous ones since the referendum. It is strikingly positive compared to the pessimistic outlook that was the theme of the others. Despite all the warnings the British economy refuses to react in the way predicted by many economists and commentators and consequently the BofE has forecast a much more encouraging future for the UK over the next two years. If you click on the link below you can read the report (45 pages); read more